Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.77
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · fair 1.51
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.57
Sporting KC II vs Tacoma Defiance preview and prediction
The match
The MLS Next Pro sees Sporting KC II take on Tacoma Defiance on Monday 4 May, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Swope Soccer Village. Sporting KC II are 13th with 23 points from 28 games (in the top half), while Tacoma Defiance sit 9th on 41 points (in the top half). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sporting KC II's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Vancouver Whitecaps II 3–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Tacoma Defiance's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Los Angeles FC II 4–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.6 for Sporting KC II and 1.8 for Tacoma Defiance. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 66% and both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 55% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Sporting KC II 1–1 Tacoma Defiance. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sporting KC II36%fair 2.76 · @2.45
Draw19%fair 5.22 · @3.70
Tacoma Defiance45%fair 2.24 · @2.30
3.41Expected goals
1.60Sporting KC II xG
1.81Tacoma Defiance xG
56%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
0–25%
From our goals model: Sporting KC II 1.6 – 1.8 Tacoma Defiance expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tacoma Defiance to win✗
45%
2.24
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
81%
1.24
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.65
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
37%
2.73
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tacoma Defiance / FT Tacoma Defiance✗
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.57
–
Form
Sporting KC II – last 5
WLLLL
20 Apr
vs Vancouver Whitecaps II
3–2
W
5 Apr
vs North Texas
1–4
L
23 Mar
vs Minnesota United II
0–1
L
9 Mar
vs Real Monarchs
0–5
L
28 Feb
@ St. Louis City II
0–4
L
0.8Scored / game
3.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Tacoma Defiance – last 5
WLLLL
27 Apr
vs Los Angeles FC II
4–1
W
18 Apr
vs St. Louis City II
1–2
L
13 Apr
@ Vancouver Whitecaps II
1–2
L
23 Mar
vs Austin II
0–1
L
9 Mar
@ Houston Dynamo FC II
0–4
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting KC II and Tacoma Defiance.
What is the prediction for Sporting KC II vs Tacoma Defiance?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Sporting KC II vs Tacoma Defiance?
On our numbers Sporting KC II have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Tacoma Defiance 45%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting KC II vs Tacoma Defiance?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting KC II vs Tacoma Defiance?
Our predicted score is Sporting KC II 1–1 Tacoma Defiance, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Sporting KC II vs Tacoma Defiance?
Sporting KC II vs Tacoma Defiance (MLS Next Pro) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Swope Soccer Village.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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