Value bet: Sport Boys to win @ 1.66 – our chance 68% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSport Boys to win ✓68% · @1.66
Double chanceSport Boys or draw ✓90% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓18% · fair 5.70
Sport Boys vs Comerciantes Unidos preview and prediction
The match
Comerciantes Unidos travel to Estadio Miguel Grau in the Primera División on Saturday 30 May (23:30 WAT) to face Sport Boys. Sport Boys are 8th with 26 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Comerciantes Unidos sit 13th on 16 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Sport Boys's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat Cusco 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Comerciantes Unidos's last 5: DLLWD Most recently they drew with Deportivo Garcilaso 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.8 for Sport Boys and 0.5 for Comerciantes Unidos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sport Boys 68%, draw 22%, Comerciantes Unidos 10%.
Safer route: Sport Boys or draw (90%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Sport Boys to win at 1.66 – 68% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sport Boys 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sport Boys68%fair 1.47 · @1.66
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.60
Comerciantes Unidos10%fair 10.14 · @5.25
2.33Expected goals
1.80Sport Boys xG
0.53Comerciantes Unidos xG
49%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–016%
0–010%
3–09%
1–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Sport Boys 1.8 – 0.5 Comerciantes Unidos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sport Boys to win✓
68%
1.47
1.66 ▲
Double chance
Sport Boys or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Half-time result
Sport Boys ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sport Boys / FT Sport Boys✗
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
18%
5.70
–
Form
Sport Boys – last 6
WDDLWL
17 May
vs Cusco
1–0
W
12 May
vs Universitario
0–0
D
26 Apr
vs Juan Pablo II College
1–1
D
15 Apr
vs FBC Melgar
1–3
L
23 Mar
vs Sport Huancayo
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Sporting Cristal
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Comerciantes Unidos – last 6
DLLWDW
25 May
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
0–0
D
17 May
@ ADT
0–2
L
2 May
@ Cienciano
0–1
L
22 Apr
vs Alianza Atletico
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Sport Huancayo
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ FC Cajamarca
4–3
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sport Boys and Comerciantes Unidos.
What is the prediction for Sport Boys vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sport Boys vs Comerciantes Unidos?
On our numbers Sport Boys have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Comerciantes Unidos 10%.
How many goals will there be in Sport Boys vs Comerciantes Unidos?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sport Boys vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our predicted score is Sport Boys 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sport Boys vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Sport Boys vs Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Miguel Grau.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
