Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Deportivo Garcilaso to win @ 1.71 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Garcilaso to win ✓65% · @1.71
Double chanceDeportivo Garcilaso or draw ✓86% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.74
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División sees Deportivo Garcilaso take on Alianza Atletico on Monday 11 May, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Alianza Atletico sit 7th on 28 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Deportivo Garcilaso's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Alianza Atletico's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to America de Cali 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Deportivo Garcilaso arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 March 2026, finished Alianza Atletico 2–0 Deportivo Garcilaso.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.6 for Alianza Atletico. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 49%.
Safer route: Deportivo Garcilaso or draw (86%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Deportivo Garcilaso to win at 1.71 – 65% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0 Alianza Atletico. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Garcilaso65%fair 1.54 · @1.71
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Alianza Atletico14%fair 6.95 · @5.10
2.25Expected goals
1.66Deportivo Garcilaso xG
0.59Alianza Atletico xG
49%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
0–011%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Deportivo Garcilaso 1.7 – 0.6 Alianza Atletico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico?
On our numbers Deportivo Garcilaso have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Alianza Atletico 14%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0 Alianza Atletico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico?
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico (Primera División) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
