Value bet: FBC Melgar to win @ 2.85 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFBC Melgar to win ✗38% · @2.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.98
Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar preview and prediction
The match
FBC Melgar travel to Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in the Primera División on Tuesday 28 April (01:00 WAT) to face Deportivo Garcilaso. Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top four), while FBC Melgar sit 5th on 29 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Deportivo Garcilaso's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Universitario 1–4 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
FBC Melgar's last 5: WWDDL Most recently they beat Universitario 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
FBC Melgar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 1.3 for FBC Melgar. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: FBC Melgar to win at 2.85 – 38% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 FBC Melgar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Garcilaso36%fair 2.74 · @2.55
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.05
FBC Melgar38%fair 2.62 · @2.85
2.56Expected goals
1.26Deportivo Garcilaso xG
1.30FBC Melgar xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Deportivo Garcilaso 1.3 – 1.3 FBC Melgar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FBC Melgar to win✗
38%
2.62
2.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FBC Melgar / FT FBC Melgar✗
22%
4.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.98
–
Form
Deportivo Garcilaso – last 6
LLDLLL
23 Apr
@ Universitario
1–4
L
18 Apr
@ Sport Huancayo
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Alianza Lima
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Cusco
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Alianza Atletico
0–2
L
28 Feb
vs Cienciano
2–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
FBC Melgar – last 6
WWDDLL
19 Apr
vs Universitario
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Sport Boys
3–1
W
20 Mar
@ ADT
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Atletico Grau
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Alianza Lima
1–3
L
27 Feb
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Garcilaso and FBC Melgar.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar?
On our numbers Deportivo Garcilaso have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FBC Melgar 38%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 FBC Melgar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar?
Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar (Primera División) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
