The Primera División sees Alianza Lima take on FBC Melgar on Tuesday 10 March, kicking off at 02:30 (WAT) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva. Alianza Lima are 6th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while FBC Melgar sit 5th on 29 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Alianza Lima and 0.7 for FBC Melgar. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alianza Lima 62%, draw 20%, FBC Melgar 18%.
Safer route: Alianza Lima or draw (82%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.00.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Alianza Lima 1–0 FBC Melgar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alianza Lima62%fair 1.62 · @1.61
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @3.60
FBC Melgar18%fair 5.57 · @5.75
2.43Expected goals
1.69Alianza Lima xG
0.74FBC Melgar xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Alianza Lima 1.7 – 0.7 FBC Melgar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win✓
62%
1.62
1.61
Double chance
Alianza Lima or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima✗
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.73
–
Form
Alianza Lima – last 2
WD
21 Feb
vs Sport Boys
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Alianza Atletico
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
FBC Melgar – last 2
LW
27 Feb
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs UCV Moquegua
4–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Lima and FBC Melgar.
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs FBC Melgar?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs FBC Melgar?
On our numbers Alianza Lima have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and FBC Melgar 18%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Lima vs FBC Melgar?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Lima vs FBC Melgar?
Our predicted score is Alianza Lima 1–0 FBC Melgar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Alianza Lima vs FBC Melgar?
Alianza Lima vs FBC Melgar (Primera División) kicks off on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
