Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.48 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 52% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFBC Melgar to win ✓67% · @1.18
Double chanceFBC Melgar or draw ✓84% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.30
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.53
FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua preview and prediction
The match
UCV Moquegua travel to Estadio de la UNSA in the Primera División on Monday 16 February (00:30 WAT) to face FBC Melgar. FBC Melgar are 5th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while UCV Moquegua sit 17th on 12 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for FBC Melgar and 0.8 for UCV Moquegua. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.30 – 52% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: FBC Melgar 2–0 UCV Moquegua. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FBC Melgar67%fair 1.49 · @1.18
Draw17%fair 6.04 · @5.75
UCV Moquegua16%fair 6.13 · @13.00
2.87Expected goals
2.04FBC Melgar xG
0.84UCV Moquegua xG
52%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: FBC Melgar 2.0 – 0.8 UCV Moquegua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FBC Melgar to win✓
67%
1.49
1.18
Double chance
FBC Melgar or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
2.30 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.48
Half-time result
FBC Melgar ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FBC Melgar / FT FBC Melgar✓
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.53
–
Form
FBC Melgar
No recent results on record.
UCV Moquegua
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FBC Melgar and UCV Moquegua.
What is the prediction for FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua?
On our numbers FBC Melgar have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 17% and UCV Moquegua 16%.
How many goals will there be in FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua?
Our predicted score is FBC Melgar 2–0 UCV Moquegua, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua?
FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua (Primera División) kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la UNSA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
