Value bet: Union Magdalena to win @ 3.25 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultReal Cartagena to win ✓40% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.44
Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena preview and prediction
The match
Union Magdalena travel to face Real Cartagena in the Primera B on Monday 23 March (02:30 WAT). Real Cartagena are 3rd with 5 points from 4 games (in the top four), while Union Magdalena sit 3rd on 4 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Real Cartagena's last 5: DDWDL Most recently they drew with Envigado 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Union Magdalena's last 4: WDWW Most recently they beat Patriotas 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Union Magdalena arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Real Cartagena and 1.2 for Union Magdalena. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Real Cartagena 40%, draw 24%, Union Magdalena 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Union Magdalena to win at 3.25 – 36% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Real Cartagena 1–1 Union Magdalena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Real Cartagena40%fair 2.48 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.20
Union Magdalena36%fair 2.80 · @3.25
2.51Expected goals
1.30Real Cartagena xG
1.21Union Magdalena xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Real Cartagena 1.3 – 1.2 Union Magdalena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Cartagena to win✓
40%
2.48
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Cartagena / FT Real Cartagena✗
22%
4.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.44
–
Form
Real Cartagena – last 5
DDWDL
16 Mar
@ Envigado
1–1
D
11 Mar
vs Internacional Palmira
2–2
D
7 Mar
vs Orsomarso
4–0
W
3 Mar
@ Tigres FC
0–0
D
21 Feb
vs Leones FC
2–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Union Magdalena – last 4
WDWW
16 Mar
vs Patriotas
2–1
W
11 Mar
vs Real Soacha
1–1
D
4 Mar
@ Barranquilla
3–1
W
24 Feb
vs Tigres FC
3–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Cartagena and Union Magdalena.
What is the prediction for Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena?
On our numbers Real Cartagena have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Union Magdalena 36%.
How many goals will there be in Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena?
Our predicted score is Real Cartagena 1–1 Union Magdalena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena?
Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena (Primera B) kicks off on Monday 23 March 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
