Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEnvigado to win ✓58% · @1.55
Double chanceEnvigado or draw ✓81% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.12
Envigado vs Popayan preview and prediction
The match
Popayan travel to Estadio Polideportivo Sur in the Primera B on Thursday 5 March (21:00 WAT) to face Envigado. Envigado are 2nd with 4 points from 3 games (in the top four), while Popayan sit 1st on 7 points (top of the table). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Popayan's last 3: LLD Most recently they lost to Barranquilla 0–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.5 for Envigado and 0.8 for Popayan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Envigado 58%, draw 23%, Popayan 19%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 51% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Envigado 1–0 Popayan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Envigado58%fair 1.72 · @1.55
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.40
Popayan19%fair 5.40 · @6.20
2.29Expected goals
1.52Envigado xG
0.76Popayan xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–112%
2–012%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Envigado 1.5 – 0.8 Popayan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Envigado
Popayan
Attack vs Primera B average
+15%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
-21%
+16%
Our expected goals here
1.54
0.83
Our own ratings from every Primera B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Envigado to win✓
58%
1.72
1.55
Double chance
Envigado or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Envigado / FT Envigado✓
33%
3.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.12
–
Form
Envigado – last 1
L
24 Feb
vs Quindio
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Popayan – last 3
LLD
26 Feb
vs Barranquilla
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Bogota FC
1–2
L
18 Feb
vs Orsomarso
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Envigado and Popayan.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Envigado vs Popayan?
On our numbers Envigado have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Popayan 19%.
How many goals will there be in Envigado vs Popayan?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Envigado vs Popayan?
Our predicted score is Envigado 1–0 Popayan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Envigado vs Popayan?
Envigado vs Popayan (Primera B) kicks off on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Polideportivo Sur.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
