Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica prediction & analysis
87%
Footrivo pick
Antofagasta or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Antofagasta to win @ 1.83 – our chance 64% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAntofagasta to win ✓64% · @1.83
Double chanceAntofagasta or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.43
Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica preview and prediction
The match
San Marcos de Arica travel to Estadio Regional de Antofagasta in the Primera B on Sunday 11 October (16:30 WAT) to face Antofagasta. Antofagasta are 4th with 48 points from 29 games (in the top four), while San Marcos de Arica sit 6th on 43 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Antofagasta's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Universidad de Chile 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Marcos de Arica's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Deportes Santa Cruz 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished San Marcos de Arica 1–1 Antofagasta.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Antofagasta and 0.7 for San Marcos de Arica. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 47%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Antofagasta 64%, draw 22%, San Marcos de Arica 13%.
Safer route: Antofagasta or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Antofagasta to win at 1.83 – 64% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Antofagasta or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Antofagasta 1–0 San Marcos de Arica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Antofagasta64%fair 1.55 · @1.83
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.20
San Marcos de Arica13%fair 7.65 · @3.90
2.44Expected goals
1.78Antofagasta xG
0.66San Marcos de Arica xG
47%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Antofagasta 1.8 – 0.7 San Marcos de Arica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica?
Our pick is Antofagasta or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica?
On our numbers Antofagasta have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and San Marcos de Arica 13%.
How many goals will there be in Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica?
Our predicted score is Antofagasta 1–0 San Marcos de Arica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica?
Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica (Primera B) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Regional de Antofagasta.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
