Value bet: Cobreloa to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCobreloa to win ✓62% · @1.85
Double chanceCobreloa or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.01
Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica preview and prediction
The match
The Primera B sees Cobreloa take on San Marcos de Arica on Tuesday 1 September, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Zorros del Desierto. Cobreloa are 1st with 54 points from 29 games (top of the table), while San Marcos de Arica sit 6th on 43 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Cobreloa's last 5: LWDDD Most recently they lost to Union Espanola 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
San Marcos de Arica's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Rangers de Talca 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Cobreloa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Cobreloa and 0.7 for San Marcos de Arica. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cobreloa 62%, draw 23%, San Marcos de Arica 15%.
Safer route: Cobreloa or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Cobreloa to win at 1.85 – 62% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Cobreloa 1–0 San Marcos de Arica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cobreloa62%fair 1.61 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.35
San Marcos de Arica15%fair 6.82 · @3.80
2.53Expected goals
1.79Cobreloa xG
0.74San Marcos de Arica xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Cobreloa 1.8 – 0.7 San Marcos de Arica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cobreloa to win✓
62%
1.61
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Cobreloa or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Cobreloa ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cobreloa / FT Cobreloa✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.01
–
Form
Cobreloa – last 6
LWDDDW
22 Aug
vs Union Espanola
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Union San Felipe
1–0
W
12 Aug
@ Magallanes
2–2
D
8 Aug
vs Deportes Iquique
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Curico Unido
0–0
D
25 Jul
vs Deportes Santa Cruz
4–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Marcos de Arica – last 6
LLLDLD
22 Aug
vs Rangers de Talca
1–2
L
16 Aug
@ Union Espanola
1–2
L
13 Aug
vs Union San Felipe
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ Santiago Wanderers
1–1
D
6 Aug
@ Coquimbo Unido
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Deportes Iquique
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cobreloa and San Marcos de Arica.
What is the prediction for Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica?
On our numbers Cobreloa have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and San Marcos de Arica 15%.
How many goals will there be in Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica?
Our predicted score is Cobreloa 1–0 San Marcos de Arica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica?
Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica (Primera B) kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
