Value bet: Cobreloa to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCobreloa to win ✗43% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.98
Recoleta vs Cobreloa preview and prediction
The match
Cobreloa travel to face Recoleta in the Primera B on Thursday 21 May (20:00 WAT). Recoleta are 7th with 42 points from 29 games (in the top half), while Cobreloa sit 1st on 54 points (top of the table). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Recoleta's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to San Marcos de Arica 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cobreloa's last 5: LDDWD Most recently they lost to Santiago Wanderers 1–5 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Recoleta and 1.6 for Cobreloa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Cobreloa to win at 2.50 – 43% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Recoleta 1–1 Cobreloa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Recoleta33%fair 3.04 · @2.50
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.25
Cobreloa43%fair 2.35 · @2.50
2.84Expected goals
1.28Recoleta xG
1.56Cobreloa xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–07%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: Recoleta 1.3 – 1.6 Cobreloa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cobreloa to win✗
43%
2.35
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cobreloa / FT Cobreloa✗
26%
3.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.98
–
Form
Recoleta – last 5
LLWWW
5 May
@ San Marcos de Arica
0–1
L
27 Mar
vs Deportes Temuco
1–5
L
13 Mar
vs Union San Felipe
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs Union Espanola
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Santiago Wanderers
2–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Cobreloa – last 6
LDDWDW
10 May
@ Santiago Wanderers
1–5
L
11 Apr
@ Union Espanola
1–1
D
24 Mar
vs Magallanes
1–1
D
14 Mar
@ Deportes Iquique
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ Deportes Santa Cruz
0–0
D
23 Feb
vs Deportes Temuco
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Recoleta and Cobreloa.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Recoleta vs Cobreloa?
On our numbers Recoleta have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cobreloa 43%.
How many goals will there be in Recoleta vs Cobreloa?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Recoleta vs Cobreloa?
Our predicted score is Recoleta 1–1 Cobreloa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Recoleta vs Cobreloa?
Recoleta vs Cobreloa (Primera B) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
