Value bet: San Marcos de Arica to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Marcos de Arica to win ✗44% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.55
Curico Unido vs San Marcos de Arica preview and prediction
The match
Curico Unido host San Marcos de Arica in the Primera B on Tuesday 12 May, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja. Curico Unido are 13th with 34 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while San Marcos de Arica sit 6th on 43 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Curico Unido's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Union Espanola 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
San Marcos de Arica's last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Recoleta 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Marcos de Arica arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Curico Unido and 1.4 for San Marcos de Arica. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Curico Unido 36%, draw 21%, San Marcos de Arica 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.62.
Value angle: San Marcos de Arica to win at 2.50 – 44% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Curico Unido 1–1 San Marcos de Arica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Curico Unido36%fair 2.81 · @2.50
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.35
San Marcos de Arica44%fair 2.29 · @2.50
2.60Expected goals
1.21Curico Unido xG
1.38San Marcos de Arica xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Curico Unido 1.2 – 1.4 San Marcos de Arica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Marcos de Arica to win✗
44%
2.29
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Marcos de Arica / FT San Marcos de Arica✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.55
–
Form
Curico Unido – last 6
LWDLDL
1 May
@ Union Espanola
0–2
L
26 Apr
vs D. Puerto Montt
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs Deportes Copiapo
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Deportes Santa Cruz
2–4
L
3 Mar
@ San Luis
1–1
D
24 Feb
vs Magallanes
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
San Marcos de Arica – last 6
WWDDDD
5 May
vs Recoleta
1–0
W
13 Apr
@ Rangers de Talca
3–2
W
23 Mar
@ Union San Felipe
1–1
D
17 Mar
vs Santiago Wanderers
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Deportes Iquique
0–0
D
2 Mar
@ Magallanes
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Curico Unido and San Marcos de Arica.
What is the prediction for Curico Unido vs San Marcos de Arica?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Curico Unido vs San Marcos de Arica?
On our numbers Curico Unido have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 21% and San Marcos de Arica 44%.
How many goals will there be in Curico Unido vs San Marcos de Arica?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Curico Unido vs San Marcos de Arica?
Our predicted score is Curico Unido 1–1 San Marcos de Arica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Curico Unido vs San Marcos de Arica?
Curico Unido vs San Marcos de Arica (Primera B) kicks off on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
