Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Marcos de Arica to win ✓50% · @1.85
Double chanceSan Marcos de Arica or draw ✓75% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 8.70
San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta preview and prediction
The match
San Marcos de Arica host Recoleta in the Primera B on Tuesday 5 May, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Carlos Dittborn. San Marcos de Arica are 6th with 43 points from 29 games (in the top half), while Recoleta sit 7th on 42 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
San Marcos de Arica's last 5: WDDDD Most recently they beat Rangers de Talca 3–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Recoleta's last 4: LWWW Most recently they lost to Deportes Temuco 1–5 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Recoleta arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.5 for San Marcos de Arica and 1.1 for Recoleta. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Marcos de Arica 50%, draw 25%, Recoleta 25%.
Safer route: San Marcos de Arica or draw (75%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: San Marcos de Arica 1–1 Recoleta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Marcos de Arica50%fair 2.00 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.20
Recoleta25%fair 4.03 · @4.00
2.55Expected goals
1.47San Marcos de Arica xG
1.08Recoleta xG
57%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: San Marcos de Arica 1.5 – 1.1 Recoleta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
San Marcos de Arica
Recoleta
Attack vs Primera B average
-12%
-2%
Goals conceded vs average
-11%
+7%
Our expected goals here
1.27
1.06
Our own ratings from every Primera B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Marcos de Arica to win✓
50%
2.00
1.85
Double chance
San Marcos de Arica or draw✓
75%
1.33
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Marcos de Arica / FT San Marcos de Arica✗
27%
3.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
8.70
–
Form
San Marcos de Arica – last 6
WDDDDD
13 Apr
@ Rangers de Talca
3–2
W
23 Mar
@ Union San Felipe
1–1
D
17 Mar
vs Santiago Wanderers
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Deportes Iquique
0–0
D
2 Mar
@ Magallanes
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Deportes Santa Cruz
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Recoleta – last 4
LWWW
27 Mar
vs Deportes Temuco
1–5
L
13 Mar
vs Union San Felipe
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs Union Espanola
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Santiago Wanderers
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Marcos de Arica and Recoleta.
What is the prediction for San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta?
On our numbers San Marcos de Arica have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Recoleta 25%.
How many goals will there be in San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta?
Our predicted score is San Marcos de Arica 1–1 Recoleta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta?
San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta (Primera B) kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Dittborn.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
