Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnion San Felipe to win ✗38% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓66% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.38
Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica preview and prediction
The match
The Primera B sees Union San Felipe take on San Marcos de Arica on Monday 23 March, kicking off at 22:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de San Felipe. Union San Felipe are 15th with 23 points from 29 games (in the bottom three), while San Marcos de Arica sit 6th on 43 points (in the top half). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Union San Felipe's last 3: LWL Most recently they lost to Recoleta 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
San Marcos de Arica's last 4: DDDD Most recently they drew with Santiago Wanderers 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Union San Felipe and 1.0 for San Marcos de Arica. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Union San Felipe 38%, draw 26%, San Marcos de Arica 37%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Union San Felipe 1–0 San Marcos de Arica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Union San Felipe38%fair 2.66 · @2.50
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @2.90
San Marcos de Arica37%fair 2.72 · @2.80
2.01Expected goals
1.01Union San Felipe xG
1.00San Marcos de Arica xG
50%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–114%
0–013%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Union San Felipe 1.0 – 1.0 San Marcos de Arica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Union San Felipe to win✗
38%
2.66
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.38
–
Form
Union San Felipe – last 3
LWL
13 Mar
@ Recoleta
0–2
L
6 Mar
vs Antofagasta
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Deportes Iquique
0–5
L
0.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Marcos de Arica – last 4
DDDD
17 Mar
vs Santiago Wanderers
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Deportes Iquique
0–0
D
2 Mar
@ Magallanes
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Deportes Santa Cruz
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Union San Felipe and San Marcos de Arica.
What is the prediction for Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica?
On our numbers Union San Felipe have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and San Marcos de Arica 37%.
How many goals will there be in Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica?
Our predicted score is Union San Felipe 1–0 San Marcos de Arica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica?
Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica (Primera B) kicks off on Monday 23 March 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de San Felipe.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
