Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Smedby to win @ 2.90 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSmedby to win ✗40% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.81
Nacka Iliria vs Smedby preview and prediction
The match
Smedby travel to face Nacka Iliria in the Division 2 Södra Svealand on Saturday 5 September (11:00 WAT). Nacka Iliria are 11th with 30 points from 26 games (in the bottom half), while Smedby sit 7th on 36 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Nacka Iliria's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Farsta 1–4 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Smedby's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Forward 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.6 for Nacka Iliria and 1.6 for Smedby. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 67% of our simulations.
Value angle: Smedby to win at 2.90 – 40% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 67% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Nacka Iliria 1–1 Smedby. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nacka Iliria38%fair 2.66 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.30
Smedby40%fair 2.52 · @2.90
3.21Expected goals
1.58Nacka Iliria xG
1.63Smedby xG
67%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–17%
1–06%
From our goals model: Nacka Iliria 1.6 – 1.6 Smedby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Smedby to win✗
40%
2.52
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.50
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.62
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Smedby / FT Smedby✗
23%
4.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.81
–
Form
Nacka Iliria – last 6
LWWWDL
28 Aug
@ Farsta
1–4
L
22 Aug
@ Forward
1–0
W
16 Aug
vs Örebro Syrianska
1–0
W
9 Aug
@ Eker Örebro
4–0
W
1 Aug
vs Lindo FF
1–1
D
25 Jun
@ Nyköping
1–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Smedby – last 6
WDWDWL
29 Aug
vs Forward
3–1
W
22 Aug
@ Syrianska FC
2–2
D
15 Aug
vs Eker Örebro
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ Karlslund
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Örebro Syrianska
2–0
W
24 Jun
@ Lindo FF
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacka Iliria and Smedby.
What is the prediction for Nacka Iliria vs Smedby?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Nacka Iliria vs Smedby?
On our numbers Nacka Iliria have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Smedby 40%.
How many goals will there be in Nacka Iliria vs Smedby?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacka Iliria vs Smedby?
Our predicted score is Nacka Iliria 1–1 Smedby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Nacka Iliria vs Smedby?
Nacka Iliria vs Smedby (Division 2 Södra Svealand) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
