Value bet: Farsta to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSmedby to win ✗41% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓70% · @1.35
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗68% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.31
Smedby vs Farsta preview and prediction
The match
The Division 2 Södra Svealand sees Smedby take on Farsta on Saturday 30 May, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT). Smedby are 7th with 36 points from 26 games (in the top half), while Farsta sit 1st on 52 points (top of the table). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Smedby's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Syrianska FC 4–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.3 per game.
Farsta's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Haninge 5–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.9 for Smedby and 1.8 for Farsta. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 70% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Smedby 41%, draw 21%, Farsta 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (70%) at 1.35.
Value angle: Farsta to win at 2.90 – 38% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Smedby 2–1 Farsta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Smedby41%fair 2.42 · @2.05
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.80
Farsta38%fair 2.66 · @2.90
3.63Expected goals
1.86Smedby xG
1.77Farsta xG
70%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
3–15%
1–05%
From our goals model: Smedby 1.9 – 1.8 Farsta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Smedby to win✗
41%
2.42
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.75
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
35%
2.83
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Smedby / FT Smedby✗
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.31
–
Form
Smedby – last 6
WDLWWW
23 May
vs Syrianska FC
4–0
W
14 May
@ Sleipner
1–1
D
3 May
@ Fittja
3–5
L
25 Apr
vs Karlslund
4–1
W
12 Apr
@ Forward
2–0
W
28 Mar
@ Eker Örebro
6–2
W
3.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Farsta – last 6
WWWLWL
22 May
vs Haninge
5–0
W
9 May
vs Örebro Syrianska
1–0
W
24 Apr
vs Syrianska FC
2–1
W
11 Apr
@ Nacka Iliria
2–3
L
3 Apr
vs Sleipner
4–1
W
29 Mar
@ Lindo FF
1–2
L
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Smedby and Farsta.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Smedby vs Farsta?
On our numbers Smedby have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Farsta 38%.
How many goals will there be in Smedby vs Farsta?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Smedby vs Farsta?
Our predicted score is Smedby 2–1 Farsta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Smedby vs Farsta?
Smedby vs Farsta (Division 2 Södra Svealand) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
