Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
2
Value bet: Berga to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBerga to win ✗56% · @1.91
Double chanceBerga or draw ✗80% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.41
Lilla Torg W vs Berga preview and prediction
The match
Lilla Torg W host Berga in the Division 2 Östra Götaland on Sunday 24 May, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Lilla Torg W's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Torns 2–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Berga's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Räppe 6–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.0 for Lilla Torg W and 1.8 for Berga. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 61%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lilla Torg W 20%, draw 23%, Berga 56%.
Safer route: Berga or draw (80%) at 1.30.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Berga to win at 1.91 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Berga or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lilla Torg W 1–1 Berga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lilla Torg W20%fair 4.91 · @3.30
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.60
Berga56%fair 1.77 · @1.91
2.85Expected goals
1.01Lilla Torg W xG
1.84Berga xG
61%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–210%
1–36%
0–36%
From our goals model: Lilla Torg W 1.0 – 1.8 Berga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Berga to win✗
56%
1.77
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Berga or draw✗
80%
1.26
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.50
Half-time result
Berga ahead at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Berga / FT Berga✗
35%
2.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.41
–
Form
Lilla Torg W – last 6
WDDWLL
13 May
@ Torns
2–0
W
9 May
vs Växjö Norra
1–1
D
30 Apr
vs Österlen
0–0
D
17 Apr
vs IFK Trelleborg
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs Sölvesborg
0–5
L
28 Mar
@ Oskarshamns AIK
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Berga – last 6
WDDWLD
14 May
vs Räppe
6–0
W
1 May
@ Växjö Norra
1–1
D
24 Apr
vs Oskarshamns AIK
1–1
D
19 Apr
@ Karlshamn
1–0
W
10 Apr
vs Karlskrona
1–3
L
5 Apr
@ Staffanstorp United
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lilla Torg W and Berga.
Our pick is Berga or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Lilla Torg W vs Berga?
On our numbers Lilla Torg W have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Berga 56%.
How many goals will there be in Lilla Torg W vs Berga?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lilla Torg W vs Berga?
Our predicted score is Lilla Torg W 1–1 Berga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lilla Torg W vs Berga?
Lilla Torg W vs Berga (Division 2 Östra Götaland) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
