Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Hwaseong to win @ 1.91 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHwaseong to win ✗60% · @1.91
Double chanceHwaseong or draw ✗85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.97
Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen preview and prediction
The match
Hwaseong host Paju Citizen in the K League 2 on Saturday 11 July, with kick-off at 11:30 (WAT) at Hwaseong Stadium. Hwaseong are 6th with 48 points from 31 games (in the top half), while Paju Citizen sit 10th on 35 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Hwaseong's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Suwon Bluewings 1–2 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Paju Citizen's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Yongin City 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Hwaseong arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Hwaseong and 0.8 for Paju Citizen. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 44%.
Value angle: Hwaseong to win at 1.91 – 60% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Hwaseong or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Hwaseong 1–0 Paju Citizen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Hwaseong60%fair 1.65 · @1.91
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.20
Paju Citizen15%fair 6.65 · @3.95
2.50Expected goals
1.75Hwaseong xG
0.75Paju Citizen xG
44%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Hwaseong 1.7 – 0.8 Paju Citizen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hwaseong to win✗
60%
1.65
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Hwaseong or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Hwaseong ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hwaseong / FT Hwaseong✗
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.97
–
Form
Hwaseong – last 6
LWWWDW
6 Jun
vs Suwon Bluewings
1–2
L
31 May
vs Gyeongnam FC
2–0
W
23 May
@ Cheongju
3–2
W
17 May
vs Busan I Park
3–2
W
9 May
vs Suwon City FC
1–1
D
3 May
vs Ansan Greeners
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Paju Citizen – last 6
LLLDLW
4 Jul
vs Yongin City
0–1
L
30 May
@ Busan I Park
1–4
L
25 May
vs Gimpo Citizen
0–1
L
3 May
vs Cheongju
0–0
D
25 Apr
vs Gyeongnam FC
2–3
L
19 Apr
@ Seongnam FC
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hwaseong and Paju Citizen.
What is the prediction for Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen?
Our pick is Hwaseong or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen?
On our numbers Hwaseong have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Paju Citizen 15%.
How many goals will there be in Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen?
Our predicted score is Hwaseong 1–0 Paju Citizen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen?
Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen (K League 2) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Hwaseong Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
