Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: CD Motagua to win @ 1.77 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCD Motagua to win ✗61% · @1.77
Double chanceCD Motagua or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.46
CD Motagua vs Olancho preview and prediction
The match
CD Motagua host Olancho in the Liga Nacional on Monday 2 March, with kick-off at 00:15 (WAT) at Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles. CD Motagua are 4th with 28 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Olancho sit 7th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
CD Motagua's last 3: WWD Most recently they beat Juticalpa 2–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Olancho's last 3: LDW Most recently they lost to Victoria 1–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
CD Motagua arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for CD Motagua and 0.9 for Olancho. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: CD Motagua 61%, draw 25%, Olancho 14%.
Safer route: CD Motagua or draw (86%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.60.
Value angle: CD Motagua to win at 1.77 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: CD Motagua 2–0 Olancho. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CD Motagua61%fair 1.64 · @1.77
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.50
Olancho14%fair 7.36 · @4.00
3.01Expected goals
2.08CD Motagua xG
0.94Olancho xG
58%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: CD Motagua 2.1 – 0.9 Olancho expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CD Motagua to win✗
61%
1.64
1.77 ▲
Double chance
CD Motagua or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.42
Half-time result
CD Motagua ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CD Motagua / FT CD Motagua✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.46
–
Form
CD Motagua – last 3
WWD
26 Feb
@ Juticalpa
2–1
W
23 Feb
@ CD Olimpia
1–0
W
16 Feb
vs CD Marathon
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Olancho – last 3
LDW
25 Feb
@ Victoria
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs CD Marathon
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Juticalpa
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CD Motagua and Olancho.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win CD Motagua vs Olancho?
On our numbers CD Motagua have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Olancho 14%.
How many goals will there be in CD Motagua vs Olancho?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Motagua vs Olancho?
Our predicted score is CD Motagua 2–0 Olancho, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is CD Motagua vs Olancho?
CD Motagua vs Olancho (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Monday 2 March 2026 at 00:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
