Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCD Marathon to win ✗65% · @1.30
Double chanceCD Marathon or draw ✗84% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.40
CD Marathon vs Génesis preview and prediction
The match
Génesis travel to Estadio Yankel Rosenthal in the Liga Nacional on Friday 27 February (02:30 WAT) to face CD Marathon. CD Marathon are 3rd with 28 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Génesis sit 8th on 15 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
CD Marathon's last 3: DDD Most recently they drew with Olancho 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for CD Marathon and 0.8 for Génesis. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: CD Marathon 65%, draw 19%, Génesis 16%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 53% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: CD Marathon 2–0 Génesis. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CD Marathon65%fair 1.54 · @1.30
Draw19%fair 5.33 · @4.50
Génesis16%fair 6.07 · @8.40
2.80Expected goals
1.96CD Marathon xG
0.84Génesis xG
53%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: CD Marathon 2.0 – 0.8 Génesis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CD Marathon to win✗
65%
1.54
1.30
Double chance
CD Marathon or draw✗
84%
1.20
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Half-time result
CD Marathon ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CD Marathon / FT CD Marathon✗
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.40
–
Form
CD Marathon – last 3
DDD
22 Feb
@ Olancho
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ CD Motagua
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Platense FC
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Génesis – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Platense FC
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CD Marathon and Génesis.
What is the prediction for CD Marathon vs Génesis?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win CD Marathon vs Génesis?
On our numbers CD Marathon have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Génesis 16%.
How many goals will there be in CD Marathon vs Génesis?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Marathon vs Génesis?
Our predicted score is CD Marathon 2–0 Génesis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is CD Marathon vs Génesis?
CD Marathon vs Génesis (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Friday 27 February 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
