Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: CD Motagua to win @ 1.80 – our chance 65% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCD Motagua to win ✓65% · @1.80
Double chanceCD Motagua or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗13% · fair 7.79
Juticalpa vs CD Motagua preview and prediction
The match
CD Motagua travel to Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas in the Liga Nacional on Thursday 26 February (00:15 WAT) to face Juticalpa. Juticalpa are 12th with 6 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while CD Motagua sit 4th on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.7 for Juticalpa and 2.2 for CD Motagua. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Juticalpa 13%, draw 22%, CD Motagua 65%.
Safer route: CD Motagua or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.65.
Value angle: CD Motagua to win at 1.80 – 65% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was CD Motagua or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Juticalpa 0–2 CD Motagua. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Juticalpa13%fair 7.66 · @3.95
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.40
CD Motagua65%fair 1.55 · @1.80
2.91Expected goals
0.74Juticalpa xG
2.17CD Motagua xG
57%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–213%
0–112%
1–29%
0–39%
1–19%
1–37%
From our goals model: Juticalpa 0.7 – 2.2 CD Motagua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CD Motagua to win✓
65%
1.55
1.80 ▲
Double chance
CD Motagua or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.36
Half-time result
CD Motagua ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CD Motagua / FT CD Motagua✗
46%
2.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
13%
7.79
–
Form
Juticalpa – last 2
LL
22 Feb
@ Platense FC
0–4
L
15 Feb
@ Olancho
1–4
L
0.5Scored / game
4.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
CD Motagua – last 2
WD
23 Feb
@ CD Olimpia
1–0
W
16 Feb
vs CD Marathon
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Juticalpa and CD Motagua.
What is the prediction for Juticalpa vs CD Motagua?
Our pick is CD Motagua or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Juticalpa vs CD Motagua?
On our numbers Juticalpa have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 22% and CD Motagua 65%.
How many goals will there be in Juticalpa vs CD Motagua?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Juticalpa vs CD Motagua?
Our predicted score is Juticalpa 0–2 CD Motagua, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Juticalpa vs CD Motagua?
Juticalpa vs CD Motagua (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 00:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
