Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCD Marathon to win ✗38% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓72% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 11.17
CD Motagua vs CD Marathon preview and prediction
The match
CD Motagua host CD Marathon in the Liga Nacional on Monday 16 February, with kick-off at 00:15 (WAT) at Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles. CD Motagua are 4th with 28 points from 14 games (in the top four), while CD Marathon sit 3rd on 28 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for CD Motagua and 1.4 for CD Marathon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: CD Motagua 36%, draw 25%, CD Marathon 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.75 – 61% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: CD Motagua 1–1 CD Marathon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CD Motagua36%fair 2.75 · @2.62
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.00
CD Marathon38%fair 2.61 · @2.62
2.74Expected goals
1.35CD Motagua xG
1.39CD Marathon xG
61%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: CD Motagua 1.4 – 1.4 CD Marathon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CD Marathon to win✗
38%
2.61
2.62
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.65
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CD Marathon / FT CD Marathon✗
22%
4.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
11.17
–
Form
CD Motagua
No recent results on record.
CD Marathon – last 1
D
13 Feb
vs Platense FC
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CD Motagua and CD Marathon.
What is the prediction for CD Motagua vs CD Marathon?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win CD Motagua vs CD Marathon?
On our numbers CD Motagua have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and CD Marathon 38%.
How many goals will there be in CD Motagua vs CD Marathon?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Motagua vs CD Marathon?
Our predicted score is CD Motagua 1–1 CD Marathon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is CD Motagua vs CD Marathon?
CD Motagua vs CD Marathon (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 00:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Victoria2