Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Samgurali to win @ 1.73 – our chance 61% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSamgurali to win ✗61% · @1.73
Double chanceSamgurali or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · fair 1.98
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.95
Samgurali vs Spaeri preview and prediction
The match
Samgurali host Spaeri in the Erovnuli Liga on Saturday 31 October, with kick-off at 12:00 (WAT) at 26 May Stadium. Samgurali are 7th with 39 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Spaeri sit 8th on 31 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Samgurali's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Dinamo Batumi 0–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Spaeri's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with Gagra 0–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Samgurali arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 August 2026, finished Spaeri 3–4 Samgurali. Across their last 4 meetings Samgurali have won 2, Spaeri 1, with 1 draw and 3.3 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for Samgurali and 1.0 for Spaeri. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 59% and both teams to score at 50%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Samgurali 61%, draw 23%, Spaeri 16%.
Safer route: Samgurali or draw (84%) at 1.20.
Value angle: Samgurali to win at 1.73 – 61% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Samgurali or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Samgurali 2–0 Spaeri. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Samgurali61%fair 1.63 · @1.73
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.75
Spaeri16%fair 6.27 · @3.75
3.07Expected goals
2.08Samgurali xG
0.99Spaeri xG
50%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Samgurali 2.1 – 1.0 Spaeri expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Samgurali or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Samgurali vs Spaeri?
On our numbers Samgurali have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Spaeri 16%.
How many goals will there be in Samgurali vs Spaeri?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Samgurali vs Spaeri?
Our predicted score is Samgurali 2–0 Spaeri, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Samgurali vs Spaeri?
Samgurali vs Spaeri (Erovnuli Liga) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at 26 May Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
