Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.30Odds
1
Value bet: Samgurali to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSamgurali to win ✓62% · @1.95
Double chanceSamgurali or draw ✓84% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.57
Samgurali vs Gagra preview and prediction
The match
The Erovnuli Liga sees Samgurali take on Gagra on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 12:30 (WAT) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava. Samgurali are 7th with 39 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Gagra sit 9th on 31 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Samgurali's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Dinamo Tbilisi 2–3 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Gagra's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with Meshakhte 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Gagra arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 June 2026, finished Gagra 0–0 Samgurali. Across their last 2 meetings Samgurali have won 1, Gagra 0, with 1 draw and 0.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Samgurali and 0.9 for Gagra. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Samgurali 62%, draw 22%, Gagra 16%.
Safer route: Samgurali or draw (84%) at 1.30.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Samgurali to win at 1.95 – 62% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Samgurali or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Samgurali 1–0 Gagra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Samgurali62%fair 1.62 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.20
Gagra16%fair 6.34 · @3.30
2.81Expected goals
1.94Samgurali xG
0.87Gagra xG
58%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Samgurali 1.9 – 0.9 Gagra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Samgurali or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Samgurali vs Gagra?
On our numbers Samgurali have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Gagra 16%.
How many goals will there be in Samgurali vs Gagra?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Samgurali vs Gagra?
Our predicted score is Samgurali 1–0 Gagra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Samgurali vs Gagra?
Samgurali vs Gagra (Erovnuli Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
