Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Saburtalo to win @ 1.85 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSaburtalo to win ✗64% · @1.85
Double chanceSaburtalo or draw ✗86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.38
Saburtalo vs Rustavi preview and prediction
The match
Saburtalo host Rustavi in the Erovnuli Liga on Wednesday 17 June, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Mikheil Meskhi Stadium. Saburtalo are 2nd with 59 points from 32 games (in the top four), while Rustavi sit 4th on 56 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Saburtalo's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Spaeri 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Rustavi's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Meshakhte 1–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Saburtalo and 0.6 for Rustavi. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Saburtalo to win at 1.85 – 64% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Saburtalo or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Saburtalo 1–0 Rustavi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Saburtalo64%fair 1.55 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @2.90
Rustavi14%fair 7.09 · @3.90
2.15Expected goals
1.60Saburtalo xG
0.55Rustavi xG
51%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Saburtalo 1.6 – 0.6 Rustavi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Saburtalo to win✗
64%
1.55
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Saburtalo or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Saburtalo / FT Saburtalo✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.38
–
Form
Saburtalo – last 6
DWLWWW
12 Jun
vs Spaeri
1–1
D
29 May
vs Dinamo Batumi
1–0
W
25 May
@ Samgurali
2–3
L
20 May
vs Gagra
1–0
W
6 May
@ Dila
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Spaeri
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Rustavi – last 6
WWLWLD
13 Jun
vs Meshakhte
1–0
W
29 May
vs Spaeri
2–1
W
25 May
@ Dinamo Batumi
0–1
L
21 May
vs Samgurali
1–0
W
11 May
vs Dinamo Tbilisi
2–3
L
5 May
@ Torpedo Kutaisi
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Saburtalo and Rustavi.
Our pick is Saburtalo or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Saburtalo vs Rustavi?
On our numbers Saburtalo have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Rustavi 14%.
How many goals will there be in Saburtalo vs Rustavi?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Saburtalo vs Rustavi?
Our predicted score is Saburtalo 1–0 Rustavi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Saburtalo vs Rustavi?
Saburtalo vs Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga) kicks off on Wednesday 17 June 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Mikheil Meskhi Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
