Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSaburtalo to win ✓64% · @1.55
Double chanceSaburtalo or draw ✓84% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗59% · fair 1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.86
Saburtalo vs Samgurali preview and prediction
The match
The Erovnuli Liga sees Saburtalo take on Samgurali on Tuesday 7 April, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Mikheil Meskhi Stadium. Saburtalo are 2nd with 59 points from 32 games (in the top four), while Samgurali sit 7th on 39 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Saburtalo's last 4: WDLW Most recently they beat Gagra 2–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Samgurali's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Rustavi 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Saburtalo and 0.6 for Samgurali. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 41%.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Saburtalo to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Saburtalo 1–0 Samgurali. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Saburtalo64%fair 1.57 · @1.55
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @3.70
Samgurali16%fair 6.21 · @5.00
2.25Expected goals
1.62Saburtalo xG
0.63Samgurali xG
41%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Saburtalo 1.6 – 0.6 Samgurali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Saburtalo to win✓
64%
1.57
1.55
Double chance
Saburtalo or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.95 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Saburtalo / FT Saburtalo✓
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.86
–
Form
Saburtalo – last 4
WDLW
3 Apr
@ Gagra
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Dinamo Tbilisi
0–0
D
11 Mar
@ Torpedo Kutaisi
0–1
L
6 Mar
vs Dila
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Samgurali – last 5
WLDDW
3 Apr
vs Rustavi
2–1
W
16 Mar
@ Spaeri
1–4
L
12 Mar
vs Dinamo Batumi
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Meshakhte
0–0
D
2 Mar
@ Gagra
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Saburtalo and Samgurali.
What is the prediction for Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
Our pick is Saburtalo to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
On our numbers Saburtalo have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Samgurali 16%.
How many goals will there be in Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
Our predicted score is Saburtalo 1–0 Samgurali, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
Saburtalo vs Samgurali (Erovnuli Liga) kicks off on Tuesday 7 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Mikheil Meskhi Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
