Value bet: Spaeri to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGagra to win ✗40% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.12
Gagra vs Spaeri preview and prediction
The match
Spaeri travel to David Petriashvili Stadium in the Erovnuli Liga on Wednesday 11 March (17:00 WAT) to face Gagra. Gagra are 9th with 31 points from 32 games (in the bottom three), while Spaeri sit 8th on 31 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Gagra and 1.1 for Spaeri. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gagra 40%, draw 24%, Spaeri 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Spaeri to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Gagra 1–1 Spaeri. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gagra40%fair 2.49 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.10
Spaeri36%fair 2.79 · @3.10
2.25Expected goals
1.17Gagra xG
1.08Spaeri xG
57%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Gagra 1.2 – 1.1 Spaeri expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gagra to win✗
40%
2.49
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gagra / FT Gagra✗
21%
4.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.12
–
Form
Gagra – last 2
LD
2 Mar
vs Samgurali
0–1
L
17 Feb
@ Bunyodkor
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Spaeri – last 2
WW
17 Feb
@ Pakhtakor
4–3
W
17 Feb
@ Lokomotiv
3–1
W
3.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gagra and Spaeri.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Gagra vs Spaeri?
On our numbers Gagra have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Spaeri 36%.
How many goals will there be in Gagra vs Spaeri?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gagra vs Spaeri?
Our predicted score is Gagra 1–1 Spaeri, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Gagra vs Spaeri?
Gagra vs Spaeri (Erovnuli Liga) kicks off on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at David Petriashvili Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
