Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Safa to win @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl Ahed to win ✓40% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.60
Al Ahed vs Safa preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Al Ahed take on Safa on Wednesday 24 June, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Beirut Municipal Stadium. Al Ahed are 4th with 9 points from 6 games (in the top four), while Safa sit 1st on 15 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Al Ahed's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Al Ansar 1–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Safa's last 4: WWWL Most recently they beat Reyady Abaseya 4–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Safa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Al Ahed and 1.1 for Safa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 46%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al Ahed 40%, draw 23%, Safa 37%.
Value angle: Safa to win at 3.25 – 37% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 58% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Al Ahed 1–1 Safa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al Ahed40%fair 2.49 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.25
Safa37%fair 2.72 · @3.25
2.34Expected goals
1.20Al Ahed xG
1.13Safa xG
46%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Al Ahed 1.2 – 1.1 Safa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Ahed to win✓
40%
2.49
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Ahed / FT Al Ahed✓
21%
4.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.60
–
Form
Al Ahed – last 6
LWLWDL
20 Jun
@ Al Ansar
1–3
L
16 Jun
vs Al Hikma
1–0
W
12 Jun
@ Al Nejmeh
0–1
L
12 May
@ Al Ansar
2–1
W
21 Feb
vs Tadamon Sour
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Al Mabarrah
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Safa – last 4
WWWL
20 Jun
@ Reyady Abaseya
4–2
W
12 Jun
@ Shabab Al Sahel
1–0
W
20 Feb
vs Racing
2–0
W
13 Feb
vs Al Ansar
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Ahed and Safa.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Al Ahed vs Safa?
On our numbers Al Ahed have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Safa 37%.
How many goals will there be in Al Ahed vs Safa?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Ahed vs Safa?
Our predicted score is Al Ahed 1–1 Safa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Al Ahed vs Safa?
Al Ahed vs Safa (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 24 June 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Beirut Municipal Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
