Cyprus vs Moldova prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Cyprus 1.6 – 0.5 Moldova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Cyprus are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 10% for Moldova.
Cyprus have taken 0 points from their last 1 matches (0W 0D 1L), scoring 0.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Moldova have 0 points from their last 1 (0W 0D 1L), averaging 0.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.6 for Cyprus, 0.5 for Moldova). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 58% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (20%), 2–0 (16%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.29. For a bigger price, Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cyprus to win ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.64 ▲ |
| Double chance | Cyprus or draw ✓ | 90% | 1.12 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Cyprus / FT Cyprus ✓ | 40% | 2.49 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 20% | 5.03 | – |
Form
Cyprus – last 1
| 26 Mar | vs Belarus | 0–1 | L |
Moldova – last 1
| 26 Mar | vs Lithuania | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cyprus and Moldova.
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Ghana1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cyprus vs Moldova?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Cyprus vs Moldova?
On our numbers Cyprus have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Moldova 10%.
How many goals will there be in Cyprus vs Moldova?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Cyprus vs Moldova?
Cyprus vs Moldova (Friendlies) kicks off on Monday 30 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at GSP Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.