Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 57% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHamrun Spartans to win ✓55% · @1.57
Double chanceHamrun Spartans or draw ✓78% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.77
Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk preview and prediction
The match
Hamrun Spartans host Marsaxlokk in the Premier League on Monday 23 February, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Victor Tedesco Stadium. Hamrun Spartans are 5th with 18 points from 12 games, while Marsaxlokk sit 2nd on 21 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.5 for Hamrun Spartans and 1.0 for Marsaxlokk. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 57% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Hamrun Spartans 1–1 Marsaxlokk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Hamrun Spartans55%fair 1.83 · @1.57
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.50
Marsaxlokk22%fair 4.49 · @5.50
2.55Expected goals
1.52Hamrun Spartans xG
1.03Marsaxlokk xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Hamrun Spartans 1.5 – 1.0 Marsaxlokk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hamrun Spartans to win✓
55%
1.83
1.57
Double chance
Hamrun Spartans or draw✓
78%
1.29
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hamrun Spartans / FT Hamrun Spartans✗
29%
3.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.77
–
Form
Hamrun Spartans – last 2
WD
18 Feb
@ Hibernians
1–0
W
13 Feb
vs Zabbar St. Patrick
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Marsaxlokk – last 2
DW
18 Feb
@ Floriana
0–0
D
15 Feb
vs Hibernians
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hamrun Spartans and Marsaxlokk.
What is the prediction for Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk?
On our numbers Hamrun Spartans have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marsaxlokk 22%.
How many goals will there be in Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk?
Our predicted score is Hamrun Spartans 1–1 Marsaxlokk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk?
Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 23 February 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Victor Tedesco Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
