Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Samtredia to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSamtredia to win ✓61% · @1.91
Double chanceSamtredia or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.44
Samtredia vs Shturmi preview and prediction
The match
The Erovnuli Liga 2 sees Samtredia take on Shturmi on Saturday 31 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium. Samtredia are 4th with 46 points from 32 games (in the top four), while Shturmi sit 2nd on 49 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Samtredia's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Gori 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Shturmi's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Sioni 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Shturmi arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 August 2026, finished Shturmi 0–1 Samtredia. Across their last 3 meetings Samtredia have won 2, Shturmi 1, with 0 draws and 3.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Samtredia and 0.8 for Shturmi. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 45%.
Value angle: Samtredia to win at 1.91 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Samtredia or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Samtredia 1–0 Shturmi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Samtredia61%fair 1.65 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.40
Shturmi17%fair 5.72 · @3.40
2.58Expected goals
1.76Samtredia xG
0.81Shturmi xG
45%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Samtredia 1.8 – 0.8 Shturmi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Samtredia or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Samtredia vs Shturmi?
On our numbers Samtredia have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Shturmi 17%.
How many goals will there be in Samtredia vs Shturmi?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Samtredia vs Shturmi?
Our predicted score is Samtredia 1–0 Shturmi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Samtredia vs Shturmi?
Samtredia vs Shturmi (Erovnuli Liga 2) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
