Value bet: Gareji to win @ 2.90 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGareji to win ✓39% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.32
Merani Martvili vs Gareji preview and prediction
The match
Merani Martvili host Gareji in the Erovnuli Liga 2 on Sunday 30 August, with kick-off at 13:30 (WAT) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava. Merani Martvili are 5th with 43 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Gareji sit 1st on 57 points (top of the table). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Merani Martvili's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Telavi 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Gareji's last 5: WLDLW Most recently they beat Kolkheti Poti 3–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Gareji arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 May 2026, finished Gareji 1–0 Merani Martvili. Across their last 2 meetings Merani Martvili have won 1, Gareji 1, with 0 draws and 1.0 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Merani Martvili and 1.1 for Gareji. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Value angle: Gareji to win at 2.90 – 39% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 1.83. Predicted score: Merani Martvili 0–1 Gareji. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Merani Martvili35%fair 2.83 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @2.88
Gareji39%fair 2.55 · @2.90
2.05Expected goals
0.99Merani Martvili xG
1.06Gareji xG
50%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–114%
0–013%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Merani Martvili 1.0 – 1.1 Gareji expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Merani Martvili vs Gareji?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Merani Martvili vs Gareji?
On our numbers Merani Martvili have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Gareji 39%.
How many goals will there be in Merani Martvili vs Gareji?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Merani Martvili vs Gareji?
Our predicted score is Merani Martvili 0–1 Gareji, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Merani Martvili vs Gareji?
Merani Martvili vs Gareji (Erovnuli Liga 2) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
