Incheon United vs Gwangju FC prediction & analysis
75%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.25
8/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultIncheon United to win65% · @1.50
Double chanceIncheon United or draw85% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.64
Incheon United vs Gwangju FC preview and prediction
The match
Incheon United host Gwangju FC in the K League 1 on Saturday 16 May, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Sungui Arena Park. Incheon United are 6th with 49 points from 35 games, while Gwangju FC sit 12th on 23 points. A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Incheon United's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Pohang Steelers 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gwangju FC's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to FC Seoul 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Incheon United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Incheon United and 0.7 for Gwangju FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Incheon United 65%, draw 20%, Gwangju FC 15%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 53% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Incheon United 1–0 Gwangju FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Incheon United65%fair 1.53 · @1.50
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @3.85
Gwangju FC15%fair 6.67 · @7.00
2.55Expected goals
1.84Incheon United xG
0.72Gwangju FC xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Incheon United 1.8 – 0.7 Gwangju FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Incheon United to win
65%
1.53
1.50
Double chance
Incheon United or draw
85%
1.18
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.90
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.41
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Incheon United ahead at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Incheon United / FT Incheon United
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.64
–
Form
Incheon United – last 6
LWDLWW
12 May
vs Pohang Steelers
0–1
L
9 May
@ Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3–0
W
5 May
@ Daejeon Citizen
0–0
D
2 May
vs Gangwon FC
0–1
L
25 Apr
vs Jeju United FC
1–0
W
21 Apr
@ Jeonbuk Motors
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Gwangju FC – last 6
LDLLLL
12 May
vs FC Seoul
0–1
L
9 May
vs Gangwon FC
0–0
D
2 May
vs Daejeon Citizen
0–5
L
26 Apr
vs FC Anyang
2–5
L
22 Apr
@ Pohang Steelers
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Ulsan Hyundai FC
1–5
L
0.5Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Incheon United and Gwangju FC.
What is the prediction for Incheon United vs Gwangju FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Incheon United vs Gwangju FC?
On our numbers Incheon United have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Gwangju FC 15%.
How many goals will there be in Incheon United vs Gwangju FC?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Incheon United vs Gwangju FC?
Our predicted score is Incheon United 1–0 Gwangju FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Incheon United vs Gwangju FC?
Incheon United vs Gwangju FC (K League 1) kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Sungui Arena Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
