Value bet: Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win @ 3.20 – our chance 39% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGimcheon Sangmu FC to win ✗39% · @3.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.98
Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC preview and prediction
The match
Incheon United host Gimcheon Sangmu FC in the K League 1 on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 08:30 (WAT) at Sungui Arena Park. Incheon United are 6th with 49 points from 35 games, while Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit 10th on 38 points.
Form guide
Incheon United's last 4: WLDL Most recently they beat FC Anyang 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 5: DDDDD Most recently they drew with Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Incheon United and 1.2 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 58%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Incheon United 37%, draw 24%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win at 3.20 – 39% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Incheon United 1–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Incheon United37%fair 2.69 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.25
Gimcheon Sangmu FC39%fair 2.59 · @3.20
2.38Expected goals
1.18Incheon United xG
1.21Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
58%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Incheon United 1.2 – 1.2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win✗
39%
2.59
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.77
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gimcheon Sangmu FC / FT Gimcheon Sangmu FC✗
21%
4.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.98
–
Form
Incheon United – last 4
WLDL
22 Mar
@ FC Anyang
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Daejeon Citizen
1–3
L
15 Mar
@ Pohang Steelers
1–1
D
28 Feb
vs FC Seoul
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Gimcheon Sangmu FC – last 5
DDDDD
22 Mar
@ Ulsan Hyundai FC
0–0
D
17 Mar
vs Gwangju FC
1–1
D
14 Mar
@ Daejeon Citizen
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Jeonbuk Motors
1–1
D
28 Feb
vs Pohang Steelers
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
What is the prediction for Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
On our numbers Incheon United have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%.
How many goals will there be in Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our predicted score is Incheon United 1–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC (K League 1) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 08:30 (West Africa Time) at Sungui Arena Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
