Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Carabobo FC prediction & analysis
83%
Footrivo pick
Carabobo FC or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Carabobo FC to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCarabobo FC to win ✗58% · @1.95
Double chanceCarabobo FC or draw ✗83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.33
Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Carabobo FC preview and prediction
The match
Estudiantes de Merida FC host Carabobo FC in the Primera División on Wednesday 18 March, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT). Estudiantes de Merida FC are 9th with 17 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Carabobo FC sit 1st on 11 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Estudiantes de Merida FC's last 4: LWWL Most recently they lost to Deportivo La Guaira 0–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Carabobo FC's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Sporting Cristal 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.7 for Estudiantes de Merida FC and 1.5 for Carabobo FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Estudiantes de Merida FC 17%, draw 25%, Carabobo FC 58%.
Safer route: Carabobo FC or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Carabobo FC to win at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Carabobo FC or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Estudiantes de Merida FC 0–1 Carabobo FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estudiantes de Merida FC17%fair 5.80 · @3.75
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.10
Carabobo FC58%fair 1.72 · @1.95
2.24Expected goals
0.70Estudiantes de Merida FC xG
1.54Carabobo FC xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–213%
1–111%
0–011%
1–29%
1–07%
From our goals model: Estudiantes de Merida FC 0.7 – 1.5 Carabobo FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Carabobo FC to win✗
58%
1.72
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Carabobo FC or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Carabobo FC / FT Carabobo FC✗
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.33
–
Form
Estudiantes de Merida FC – last 4
LWWL
6 Mar
vs Deportivo La Guaira
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Puerto Cabello
2–1
W
23 Feb
@ Academia Anzoátegui
3–0
W
13 Feb
vs Rayo Zuliano
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Carabobo FC – last 5
LDWDW
4 Mar
vs Sporting Cristal
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Caracas FC
0–0
D
24 Feb
@ Huachipato
2–1
W
20 Feb
@ Metropolitanos FC
1–1
D
17 Feb
vs Huachipato
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estudiantes de Merida FC and Carabobo FC.
What is the prediction for Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Carabobo FC?
Our pick is Carabobo FC or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Carabobo FC?
On our numbers Estudiantes de Merida FC have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Carabobo FC 58%.
How many goals will there be in Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Carabobo FC?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Carabobo FC?
Our predicted score is Estudiantes de Merida FC 0–1 Carabobo FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Carabobo FC?
Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Carabobo FC (Primera División) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
