Value bet: Atletico Nacional to win @ 1.89 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓58% · @1.89
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.79
Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Atletico Nacional take on Bucaramanga on Tuesday 21 April, kicking off at 02:30 (WAT) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Atletico Nacional are 1st with 39 points from 18 games (top of the table), while Bucaramanga sit 4th on 32 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Atletico Nacional's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Independiente Medellin 3–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Bucaramanga's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Chico 5–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Atletico Nacional arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.7 for Atletico Nacional and 0.9 for Bucaramanga. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico Nacional 58%, draw 21%, Bucaramanga 21%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Atletico Nacional to win at 1.89 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Bucaramanga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Nacional58%fair 1.73 · @1.89
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.40
Bucaramanga21%fair 4.74 · @4.10
2.58Expected goals
1.69Atletico Nacional xG
0.89Bucaramanga xG
51%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.7 – 0.9 Bucaramanga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✓
58%
1.73
1.89 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✗
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.79
–
Form
Atletico Nacional – last 6
WWDWWL
12 Apr
@ Independiente Medellin
3–2
W
7 Apr
vs Jaguares
2–1
W
2 Apr
vs Cucuta
0–0
D
30 Mar
@ Deportivo Pasto
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Internacional de Bogota
3–0
W
18 Mar
@ Millonarios
0–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bucaramanga – last 6
WLLLLD
13 Apr
vs Chico
5–0
W
7 Apr
@ Águilas Doradas
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ America de Cali
0–2
L
28 Mar
vs Santa Fe
1–2
L
25 Mar
@ Junior
0–2
L
19 Mar
vs Once Caldas
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Nacional and Bucaramanga.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bucaramanga 21%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 1–0 Bucaramanga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga?
Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga (Primera A) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
