Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin prediction & analysis
77%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.22
8/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Alianza Valledupar to win @ 3.20 – our chance 33% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win44% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–112% · fair 8.62
Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Alianza Valledupar take on Independiente Medellin on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 22:10 (WAT) at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau. Alianza Valledupar are 16th with 18 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while Independiente Medellin sit 6th on 29 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Alianza Valledupar's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Internacional de Bogota 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Independiente Medellin's last 5: LLDDW Most recently they lost to Flamengo 1–4 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Alianza Valledupar and 1.3 for Independiente Medellin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Alianza Valledupar to win at 3.20 – 33% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Independiente Medellin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alianza Valledupar33%fair 2.99 · @3.20
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.15
Independiente Medellin44%fair 2.27 · @2.30
2.44Expected goals
1.11Alianza Valledupar xG
1.33Independiente Medellin xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Alianza Valledupar 1.1 – 1.3 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win
44%
2.27
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.96
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
12%
8.62
–
Form
Alianza Valledupar – last 6
LWDLWD
13 Apr
@ Internacional de Bogota
1–2
L
6 Apr
@ Deportivo Pereira
3–2
W
1 Apr
vs Deportivo Pasto
0–0
D
27 Mar
@ Águilas Doradas
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Jaguares
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Independiente Medellin – last 6
LLDDWL
17 Apr
@ Flamengo
1–4
L
12 Apr
vs Atletico Nacional
2–3
L
9 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
3 Apr
@ Once Caldas
1–1
D
31 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
23 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Valledupar and Independiente Medellin.
What is the prediction for Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Alianza Valledupar have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Independiente Medellin 44%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin?
Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 22:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
