Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓46% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.76
Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Pasto host Atletico Nacional in the Primera A on Monday 30 March, with kick-off at 00:20 (WAT) at Estadio Departamental Libertad. Deportivo Pasto are 18th with 15 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Atletico Nacional sit 1st on 39 points (top of the table). A gap of 24 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Deportivo Pasto's last 5: WWLWD Most recently they beat Fortaleza FC 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Atletico Nacional's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Internacional de Bogota 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Deportivo Pasto and 1.5 for Atletico Nacional. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportivo Pasto 32%, draw 22%, Atletico Nacional 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.75 – 61% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Atletico Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Pasto32%fair 3.17 · @3.20
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.20
Atletico Nacional46%fair 2.16 · @2.24
2.68Expected goals
1.18Deportivo Pasto xG
1.50Atletico Nacional xG
61%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Deportivo Pasto 1.2 – 1.5 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✓
46%
2.16
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.65
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✗
26%
3.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.76
–
Form
Deportivo Pasto – last 6
WWLWDD
25 Mar
@ Fortaleza FC
2–1
W
18 Mar
vs Chico
2–0
W
14 Mar
@ Once Caldas
2–4
L
10 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–0
W
21 Feb
@ Deportivo Pereira
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Internacional de Bogota
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico Nacional – last 6
WLWWLL
22 Mar
vs Internacional de Bogota
3–0
W
18 Mar
@ Millonarios
0–3
L
14 Mar
vs Llaneros
2–0
W
11 Mar
@ Junior
4–0
W
5 Mar
vs Millonarios
1–3
L
2 Mar
@ Deportes Tolima
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Pasto and Atletico Nacional.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Deportivo Pasto have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico Nacional 46%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?
Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 30 March 2026 at 00:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Departamental Libertad.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
