Value bet: Deportivo Pasto to win @ 3.50 – our chance 36% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFortaleza FC to win ✗39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.28
Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Pasto preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Fortaleza FC take on Deportivo Pasto on Wednesday 25 March, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Cota. Fortaleza FC are 20th with 12 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Deportivo Pasto sit 18th on 15 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Fortaleza FC's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Deportes Tolima 0–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Deportivo Pasto's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat Chico 2–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Fortaleza FC and 1.2 for Deportivo Pasto. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fortaleza FC 39%, draw 25%, Deportivo Pasto 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Deportivo Pasto to win at 3.50 – 36% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Fortaleza FC 1–1 Deportivo Pasto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fortaleza FC39%fair 2.58 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.05
Deportivo Pasto36%fair 2.79 · @3.50
2.46Expected goals
1.26Fortaleza FC xG
1.20Deportivo Pasto xG
56%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Fortaleza FC 1.3 – 1.2 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fortaleza FC to win✗
39%
2.58
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fortaleza FC / FT Fortaleza FC✗
22%
4.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.28
–
Form
Fortaleza FC – last 6
LLWDWL
20 Mar
@ Deportes Tolima
0–2
L
16 Mar
@ Junior
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Jaguares
2–1
W
2 Mar
@ Deportivo Cali
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs Chico
2–1
W
13 Feb
@ Atletico Nacional
1–4
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Deportivo Pasto – last 5
WLWDD
18 Mar
vs Chico
2–0
W
14 Mar
@ Once Caldas
2–4
L
10 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–0
W
21 Feb
@ Deportivo Pereira
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Internacional de Bogota
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fortaleza FC and Deportivo Pasto.
What is the prediction for Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Pasto?
On our numbers Fortaleza FC have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Deportivo Pasto 36%.
How many goals will there be in Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Pasto?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our predicted score is Fortaleza FC 1–1 Deportivo Pasto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Pasto?
Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Wednesday 25 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Cota.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
