Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
Once Caldas or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Once Caldas to win @ 1.84 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultOnce Caldas to win ✓65% · @1.84
Double chanceOnce Caldas or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.86
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto preview and prediction
The match
Once Caldas host Deportivo Pasto in the Primera A on Saturday 14 March, with kick-off at 00:20 (WAT) at Estadio Palogrande. Once Caldas are 8th with 27 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Deportivo Pasto sit 18th on 15 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Once Caldas's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Deportivo Cali 2–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportivo Pasto's last 3: WDD Most recently they beat America de Cali 2–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Once Caldas and 0.7 for Deportivo Pasto. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Once Caldas 65%, draw 23%, Deportivo Pasto 12%.
Safer route: Once Caldas or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Once Caldas to win at 1.84 – 65% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Once Caldas or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Once Caldas 1–0 Deportivo Pasto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Once Caldas65%fair 1.53 · @1.84
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.45
Deportivo Pasto12%fair 8.66 · @4.20
2.56Expected goals
1.88Once Caldas xG
0.67Deportivo Pasto xG
48%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Once Caldas 1.9 – 0.7 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Once Caldas to win✓
65%
1.53
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Once Caldas or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Once Caldas ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Once Caldas / FT Once Caldas✓
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.86
–
Form
Once Caldas – last 3
WWL
7 Mar
@ Deportivo Cali
2–0
W
28 Feb
vs Chico
3–0
W
15 Feb
@ Deportes Tolima
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Deportivo Pasto – last 3
WDD
10 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–0
W
21 Feb
@ Deportivo Pereira
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Internacional de Bogota
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Once Caldas and Deportivo Pasto.
What is the prediction for Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our pick is Once Caldas or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?
On our numbers Once Caldas have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Deportivo Pasto 12%.
How many goals will there be in Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our predicted score is Once Caldas 1–0 Deportivo Pasto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 00:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Palogrande.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
