Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 53% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✓66% · @1.28
Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw ✓88% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.25
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.43
Independiente Medellin vs Chico preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Independiente Medellin take on Chico on Thursday 23 April, kicking off at 00:20 (WAT) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Independiente Medellin are 6th with 29 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Chico sit 15th on 19 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Independiente Medellin's last 5: LLDDW Most recently they lost to Flamengo 1–4 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Chico's last 5: WLWDL Most recently they beat Deportivo Cali 1–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Chico arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Independiente Medellin and 0.7 for Chico. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 53% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Independiente Medellin 2–0 Chico. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente Medellin66%fair 1.53 · @1.28
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @4.90
Chico12%fair 8.08 · @11.50
2.67Expected goals
1.95Independiente Medellin xG
0.73Chico xG
53%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 1.9 – 0.7 Chico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
66%
1.53
1.28
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Half-time result
Independiente Medellin ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✓
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.43
–
Form
Independiente Medellin – last 6
LLDDWL
17 Apr
@ Flamengo
1–4
L
12 Apr
vs Atletico Nacional
2–3
L
9 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
3 Apr
@ Once Caldas
1–1
D
31 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
23 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chico – last 6
WLWDLW
17 Apr
vs Deportivo Cali
1–0
W
13 Apr
@ Bucaramanga
0–5
L
2 Apr
vs Deportivo Pereira
1–0
W
23 Mar
vs Deportes Tolima
1–1
D
18 Mar
@ Deportivo Pasto
0–2
L
15 Mar
vs Millonarios
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente Medellin and Chico.
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Chico?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Chico?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chico 12%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Chico?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Chico?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 2–0 Chico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Chico?
Independiente Medellin vs Chico (Primera A) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 00:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
