Value bet: Deportes Tolima to win @ 1.70 – our chance 64% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportes Tolima to win ✗64% · @1.70
Double chanceDeportes Tolima or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.43
Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe preview and prediction
The match
Deportes Tolima host Santa Fe in the Primera A on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Deportes Tolima are 9th with 26 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Santa Fe sit 5th on 31 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Deportes Tolima's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Águilas Doradas 4–1 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Santa Fe's last 5: LWWDD Most recently they lost to Llaneros 0–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Deportes Tolima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Deportes Tolima and 0.7 for Santa Fe. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportes Tolima 64%, draw 21%, Santa Fe 15%.
Safer route: Deportes Tolima or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Deportes Tolima to win at 1.70 – 64% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Deportes Tolima 1–0 Santa Fe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportes Tolima64%fair 1.56 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.88 · @3.55
Santa Fe15%fair 6.54 · @4.90
2.41Expected goals
1.74Deportes Tolima xG
0.68Santa Fe xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.7 – 0.7 Santa Fe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportes Tolima to win✗
64%
1.56
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Deportes Tolima or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.31
1.25
Half-time result
Deportes Tolima ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportes Tolima / FT Deportes Tolima✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.43
–
Form
Deportes Tolima – last 6
WWDWWL
1 Apr
vs Águilas Doradas
4–1
W
29 Mar
vs Jaguares
3–1
W
23 Mar
@ Chico
1–1
D
20 Mar
vs Fortaleza FC
2–0
W
12 Mar
vs O'Higgins
2–0
W
5 Mar
@ O'Higgins
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Santa Fe – last 6
LWWDDL
2 Apr
vs Llaneros
0–1
L
28 Mar
@ Bucaramanga
2–1
W
23 Mar
vs Independiente Medellin
2–1
W
19 Mar
@ Deportivo Cali
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Alianza Valledupar
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs Atletico Nacional
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportes Tolima and Santa Fe.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Santa Fe 15%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–0 Santa Fe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe?
Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
