Value bet: Atletico Nacional to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✗40% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.01
Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Deportes Tolima take on Atletico Nacional on Monday 2 March, kicking off at 02:30 (WAT) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Deportes Tolima are 9th with 26 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Atletico Nacional sit 1st on 39 points (top of the table). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Deportes Tolima's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Cucuta 2–3 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Atletico Nacional's last 4: WWLW Most recently they beat Santa Fe 2–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Deportes Tolima and 1.4 for Atletico Nacional. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportes Tolima 36%, draw 24%, Atletico Nacional 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Atletico Nacional to win at 2.75 – 40% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Deportes Tolima 1–1 Atletico Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportes Tolima36%fair 2.82 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Atletico Nacional40%fair 2.47 · @2.75
2.61Expected goals
1.25Deportes Tolima xG
1.36Atletico Nacional xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.3 – 1.4 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✗
40%
2.47
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.01
–
Form
Deportes Tolima – last 3
LWW
23 Feb
@ Cucuta
2–3
L
20 Feb
@ Deportivo Tachira FC
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Once Caldas
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Nacional – last 4
WWLW
26 Feb
@ Santa Fe
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Alianza Valledupar
3–0
W
16 Feb
@ Deportivo Cali
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Fortaleza FC
4–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportes Tolima and Atletico Nacional.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Nacional 40%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?
Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 2 March 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
