Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓38% · @2.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 11.15
Junior vs Atletico Nacional preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Nacional travel to Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez in the Primera A on Wednesday 11 March (02:30 WAT) to face Junior. Junior are 14th with 19 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while Atletico Nacional sit 1st on 39 points (top of the table). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Junior's last 4: DWLW Most recently they drew with Alianza Valledupar 1–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Atletico Nacional's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Millonarios 1–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Junior and 1.4 for Atletico Nacional. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Junior 38%, draw 24%, Atletico Nacional 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.75 – 61% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Junior 1–1 Atletico Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Junior38%fair 2.65 · @2.68
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Atletico Nacional38%fair 2.62 · @2.58
2.72Expected goals
1.36Junior xG
1.37Atletico Nacional xG
61%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Junior 1.4 – 1.4 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✓
38%
2.62
2.58
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✓
22%
4.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
11.15
–
Form
Junior – last 4
DWLW
6 Mar
vs Alianza Valledupar
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Jaguares
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
19 Feb
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico Nacional – last 6
LLWWLW
5 Mar
vs Millonarios
1–3
L
2 Mar
@ Deportes Tolima
0–1
L
26 Feb
@ Santa Fe
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Alianza Valledupar
3–0
W
16 Feb
@ Deportivo Cali
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Fortaleza FC
4–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Junior and Atletico Nacional.
What is the prediction for Junior vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Junior vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Junior have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Nacional 38%.
How many goals will there be in Junior vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Junior vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Junior 1–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Junior vs Atletico Nacional?
Junior vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A) kicks off on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
