Value bet: Palestino to win @ 3.15 – our chance 38% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNublense to win ✓38% · @2.16
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.24
Nublense vs Palestino preview and prediction
The match
Palestino travel to Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas in the Primera División on Sunday 26 July (20:00 WAT) to face Nublense. Nublense are 10th with 35 points from 27 games (in the bottom half), while Palestino sit 7th on 38 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Nublense's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to O'Higgins 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Palestino's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Deportes Santa Cruz 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Nublense and 1.3 for Palestino. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Palestino to win at 3.15 – 38% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Nublense 1–1 Palestino. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nublense38%fair 2.62 · @2.16
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.25
Palestino38%fair 2.63 · @3.15
2.58Expected goals
1.29Nublense xG
1.29Palestino xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Nublense 1.3 – 1.3 Palestino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nublense to win✓
38%
2.62
2.16
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nublense / FT Nublense✓
21%
4.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.24
–
Form
Nublense – last 6
LWDWWW
13 Jul
@ O'Higgins
0–1
L
10 Jul
vs O'Higgins
2–1
W
5 Jul
vs Curico Unido
2–2
D
1 Jul
@ Universidad de Concepcion
1–0
W
28 Jun
@ Rangers de Talca
1–0
W
26 Jun
vs Universidad de Concepcion
4–2
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Palestino – last 6
WWLDLW
11 Jul
vs Deportes Santa Cruz
3–2
W
4 Jul
@ Magallanes
2–1
W
30 Jun
@ A. Italiano
2–3
L
27 Jun
@ Deportes Santa Cruz
0–0
D
24 Jun
vs A. Italiano
1–2
L
20 Jun
vs Magallanes
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nublense and Palestino.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Nublense vs Palestino?
On our numbers Nublense have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Palestino 38%.
How many goals will there be in Nublense vs Palestino?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nublense vs Palestino?
Our predicted score is Nublense 1–1 Palestino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Nublense vs Palestino?
Nublense vs Palestino (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
