Value bet: Palestino to win @ 1.72 – our chance 64% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalestino to win ✗64% · @1.72
Double chancePalestino or draw ✗85% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.66
Palestino vs Concepción preview and prediction
The match
Concepción travel to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in the Primera División on Friday 24 April (01:00 WAT) to face Palestino. Palestino are 7th with 38 points from 27 games (in the top half), while Concepción sit 8th on 38 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Palestino's last 5: WLWDL Most recently they beat Colo Colo 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Concepción's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with D. La Serena 3–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Palestino arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Palestino and 0.8 for Concepción. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Palestino to win at 1.72 – 64% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Palestino 2–0 Concepción. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Palestino64%fair 1.57 · @1.72
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.50
Concepción15%fair 6.61 · @4.55
2.67Expected goals
1.89Palestino xG
0.78Concepción xG
53%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Palestino 1.9 – 0.8 Concepción expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palestino to win✗
64%
1.57
1.72 ▲
Double chance
Palestino or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.28
Half-time result
Palestino ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palestino / FT Palestino✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.66
–
Form
Palestino – last 6
WLWDLL
19 Apr
@ Colo Colo
1–0
W
15 Apr
vs Atletico Torque
0–2
L
12 Apr
vs Deportes Limache
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Riestra
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ U. Catolica
1–6
L
31 Mar
vs O'Higgins
1–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Concepción – last 6
DLLLLL
19 Apr
vs D. La Serena
3–3
D
14 Apr
@ Union La Calera
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Coquimbo Unido
1–2
L
25 Mar
vs Colo Colo
1–3
L
14 Mar
@ A. Italiano
0–3
L
7 Mar
vs Nublense
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palestino and Concepción.
What is the prediction for Palestino vs Concepción?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Palestino vs Concepción?
On our numbers Palestino have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Concepción 15%.
How many goals will there be in Palestino vs Concepción?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palestino vs Concepción?
Our predicted score is Palestino 2–0 Concepción, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Palestino vs Concepción?
Palestino vs Concepción (Primera División) kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
