Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Nublense to win @ 1.83 – our chance 58% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNublense to win ✗58% · @1.83
Double chanceNublense or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗70% · fair 1.43
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 4.98
Nublense vs D. La Serena preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División sees Nublense take on D. La Serena on Monday 16 March, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas. Nublense are 10th with 35 points from 27 games (in the bottom half), while D. La Serena sit 9th on 37 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Nublense's last 4: WLWW Most recently they beat Concepción 2–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
D. La Serena's last 3: WWD Most recently they beat Union La Calera 3–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.4 for Nublense and 0.6 for D. La Serena. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nublense 58%, draw 25%, D. La Serena 16%.
Safer route: Nublense or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Nublense to win at 1.83 – 58% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nublense or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Nublense 1–0 D. La Serena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nublense58%fair 1.71 · @1.83
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.25
D. La Serena16%fair 6.17 · @3.90
1.92Expected goals
1.37Nublense xG
0.55D. La Serena xG
45%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
0–015%
2–014%
1–111%
0–18%
2–18%
From our goals model: Nublense 1.4 – 0.6 D. La Serena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nublense to win✗
58%
1.71
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Nublense or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nublense / FT Nublense✗
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
4.98
–
Form
Nublense – last 4
WLWW
7 Mar
@ Concepción
2–0
W
2 Mar
vs U. Catolica
1–2
L
20 Feb
@ Union La Calera
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs A. Italiano
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
D. La Serena – last 3
WWD
6 Mar
vs Union La Calera
3–0
W
27 Feb
@ Cobresal
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs Universidad de Concepcion
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nublense and D. La Serena.
What is the prediction for Nublense vs D. La Serena?
Our pick is Nublense or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Nublense vs D. La Serena?
On our numbers Nublense have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and D. La Serena 16%.
How many goals will there be in Nublense vs D. La Serena?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nublense vs D. La Serena?
Our predicted score is Nublense 1–0 D. La Serena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Nublense vs D. La Serena?
Nublense vs D. La Serena (Primera División) kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
