D. La Serena vs Union La Calera prediction & analysis
81%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Union La Calera to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultD. La Serena to win ✓41% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.48
D. La Serena vs Union La Calera preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División sees D. La Serena take on Union La Calera on Friday 6 March, kicking off at 22:00 (WAT) at La Portada. D. La Serena are 9th with 37 points from 27 games (in the bottom half), while Union La Calera sit 16th on 24 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Union La Calera's last 3: WLL Most recently they beat A. Italiano 3–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for D. La Serena and 1.0 for Union La Calera. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: D. La Serena 41%, draw 24%, Union La Calera 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Union La Calera to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: D. La Serena 1–1 Union La Calera. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
D. La Serena41%fair 2.46 · @2.24
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.10
Union La Calera35%fair 2.85 · @3.10
2.12Expected goals
1.12D. La Serena xG
1.01Union La Calera xG
54%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–012%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: D. La Serena 1.1 – 1.0 Union La Calera expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
D. La Serena to win✓
41%
2.46
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT D. La Serena / FT D. La Serena✓
21%
4.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.48
–
Form
D. La Serena – last 2
WD
27 Feb
@ Cobresal
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs Universidad de Concepcion
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Union La Calera – last 3
WLL
28 Feb
vs A. Italiano
3–0
W
20 Feb
vs Nublense
0–1
L
16 Feb
@ Colo Colo
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between D. La Serena and Union La Calera.
What is the prediction for D. La Serena vs Union La Calera?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win D. La Serena vs Union La Calera?
On our numbers D. La Serena have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Union La Calera 35%.
How many goals will there be in D. La Serena vs Union La Calera?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for D. La Serena vs Union La Calera?
Our predicted score is D. La Serena 1–1 Union La Calera, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is D. La Serena vs Union La Calera?
D. La Serena vs Union La Calera (Primera División) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at La Portada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
