Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Nublense to win @ 2.62 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNublense to win ✓44% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.50
Concepción vs Nublense preview and prediction
The match
Concepción host Nublense in the Primera División on Saturday 7 March, with kick-off at 00:30 (WAT) at Municipal de Collao. Concepción are 8th with 38 points from 27 games (in the top half), while Nublense sit 10th on 35 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Nublense's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to U. Catolica 1–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.0 for Concepción and 1.2 for Nublense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely.
Value angle: Nublense to win at 2.62 – 44% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Concepción 0–1 Nublense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Concepción33%fair 3.01 · @2.62
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.10
Nublense44%fair 2.25 · @2.62
2.19Expected goals
0.98Concepción xG
1.20Nublense xG
53%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Concepción 1.0 – 1.2 Nublense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nublense to win✓
44%
2.25
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nublense / FT Nublense✓
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.50
–
Form
Concepción – last 2
DL
21 Feb
vs Cobresal
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Universidad de Concepcion
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nublense – last 3
LWW
2 Mar
vs U. Catolica
1–2
L
20 Feb
@ Union La Calera
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs A. Italiano
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Concepción and Nublense.
What is the prediction for Concepción vs Nublense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Concepción vs Nublense?
On our numbers Concepción have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Nublense 44%.
How many goals will there be in Concepción vs Nublense?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Concepción vs Nublense?
Our predicted score is Concepción 0–1 Nublense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Concepción vs Nublense?
Concepción vs Nublense (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Collao.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
