Value bet: Universidad de Concepcion to win @ 2.75 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUniversidad de Concepcion to win ✗39% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.31
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.72
D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División sees D. La Serena take on Universidad de Concepcion on Sunday 22 February, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at La Portada. D. La Serena are 9th with 37 points from 27 games (in the bottom half), while Universidad de Concepcion sit 15th on 26 points (in the bottom three).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for D. La Serena and 1.2 for Universidad de Concepcion. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: D. La Serena 37%, draw 24%, Universidad de Concepcion 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.82.
Value angle: Universidad de Concepcion to win at 2.75 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: D. La Serena 1–1 Universidad de Concepcion. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
D. La Serena37%fair 2.70 · @2.45
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.30
Universidad de Concepcion39%fair 2.56 · @2.75
2.34Expected goals
1.15D. La Serena xG
1.19Universidad de Concepcion xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: D. La Serena 1.1 – 1.2 Universidad de Concepcion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universidad de Concepcion to win✗
39%
2.56
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.31
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.82
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universidad de Concepcion / FT Universidad de Concepcion✗
21%
4.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.72
–
Form
D. La Serena
No recent results on record.
Universidad de Concepcion – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Concepción
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between D. La Serena and Universidad de Concepcion.
What is the prediction for D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion?
On our numbers D. La Serena have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Universidad de Concepcion 39%.
How many goals will there be in D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion?
Our predicted score is D. La Serena 1–1 Universidad de Concepcion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion?
D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at La Portada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
